SHFE Zinc Records a Bullish Candlestick, Focus on Subsequent Actual Export Situation [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM Oct. 17:

       Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,944.50/mt. At the beginning of the session, the price center fluctuated considerably around the daily average line, touching a low of $2,940.00/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc continued to rise, hitting a high of $2,976/mt, and finally closed up at $2,968.00/mt, up $27.5/mt, a gain of 0.94%. Trading volume decreased to 73,273 lots, while open interest increased by 749 lots to 225,000 lots. On Oct. 16, LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 mt to 38,300 mt, a drop of 0.13%. Overnight, LME zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average exerting pressure above and the lower Bollinger Band providing support below. From a macro perspective, recent comments from several US Fed officials have laid the groundwork for further interest rate cuts, while turmoil in the US credit market has boosted risk-off sentiment. Inventory-wise, overseas zinc stocks remain low. Under these combined influences, the LME zinc price center edged higher.

       Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2511 contract opened at 21,960 yuan/mt. Early in the session, bulls reduced positions, pushing the price down to a low of 21,920 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bears cutting positions drove the price above the daily average line to a high of 22,020 yuan/mt. Towards the end of the session, the price center shifted slightly lower, and it finally closed up at 21,995 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.25%. Trading volume decreased to 39,144 lots, while open interest fell by 7,453 lots to 79,622 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with multiple moving averages applying pressure above and the lower Bollinger Band offering support below. Currently, the domestic fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, with end-use consumption showing no significant improvement. SHFE zinc is expected to trade mainly within a range in the short term, with attention on subsequent actual export performance.